In early 2022, the Trump machine has become a kind of weird regime in exile. Is this strange organism learning? Maybe sort of, though so are its enemies.
Item: in brazen defiance of the historic precedent of US v Humphrey’s Executor (1935), Trump recently called for the White House to be able to fire anyone in the so-called “executive branch.” Such ignorance of black-letter law is not unknown in the man! Trump may never even have heard of the Administrative Procedure Act (1946). And—is it that far from anyone to everyone? Hm.
Already, the voter can have no doubt that such holy and venerated parchments will, if a new Trump administration rears its ugly head, be utterly ravaged and spoiled like a sandcastle sacked by a dog—if Trump in 2024, once elected, can then get his ugly way.
If not, of course, the paperwork will remain unchallenged, and the institutions that rule by these ancient promises will be unharmed. If the status quo is what you’re into, you’ll be popping the champagne!
Will the next Trump administration truly be able to drain the swamp—will it have, once elected, the powers of FDR or more? Or the powers of Julius Caesar—which is more like what he needs? Or the powers of President Camacho—which was about the power the Deep State let “President” Trump get his hands on the first time around?
It is hard to know. But one sure way to not be powerful is to—never be ready for power. Another way is to never try to take power.
Let us imagine a fantasy world into which we could convert the Trump operation, as it is in early 2022, into a truly effective machine for both taking and using power.
Why this is safe
It is important to understand that this is not going to happen—for one reason. Donald J. Trump is not the “Trump” in the story. He is who he is. His capacities are what they are. Of course man must always know hope, but I actually knew the first Trump administration would be a farce once I realized one thing—he wasn’t selling his hotels.
Here is the most important right-wing American politician since Richard Nixon—and dude isn’t even all in. Indeed you get the sense that he recognizes that the Presidency is a kind of decorative honor, like the throne of England, which would actually promote his hospitality and other businesses (licensees, really). Imagine staying in a Windsor branded hotel! The Trump brand, he must have dreamed, could be as strong as that.
Given that the Presidency has actually totally trashed Trump’s brand, he has probably given up on this one. But you never know. The fellow has certainly drunk deeply at the well of the power of positive thinking—which has served him well, up to a point. Alas, Trump 2024, if he wins, will be nothing but another expression of the Peter Principle. Liberals do not need to fear him. Reactionaries can give up all their useless hopes.
Therefore, this document is safe—Trump will never do anything like this. Whew! But I won’t disguise my belief that someone should. Someone worthy of the task, of course.
An optimistic framing of one Trumpian future
Trump did a great job! He made America great again! But his enemies have gotten stronger, too. Well—America was always great. But now, starting in 2025, we’re going to make America insanely great. And there’s only one way you can do that.
We’ve got to risk a full power start—a full reboot of the USG. We can only do this by giving absolute sovereignty to a single organization—with roughly the powers that the Allied occupation authorities held in Japan and Germany in the fall of 1945. This level of centralized emergency power worked to refound a nation then, for them. So it should work now, for us.
What Trump is going to do is to build this regime-in-exile or occupation authority as a private and (needless to say) peaceful institution—a larva. By winning a Presidential election, he will then install it in office.
Metamorphosing into a beautiful butterfly, this larva will perform the feat that eluded Trump’s first regime—turning office into power. As soon as it takes symbolic power, the butterfly will be ready, willing and able to take actual power—to actually make America great again. You have seen nothing—nothing.
Doing this will require powers in the Presidency that have not been seen in the lives of those now living. It will be a kind of restoration of the historic office. It will, in fact, require the executive powers of Washington, Lincoln and FDR—or even more.
These three Presidents, and to some extent a few more, were almost true CEOs of the executive branch. Their monarchical regimes then decayed into oligarchies, each of which was rebooted by the next monarchy. By the clock, we are about due for another.
Trump in 2017 took office; he took about 0.01% of power. If Trump in 2021 wants to have more than 0.001% of power—his enemies have gotten stronger, too—the only way he can do it is to take 100%. To take it all at once—completely legally.
Again, the real Donald J. Trump would never have the guts to even think of doing this. (And he’s just too old.) So it’s safe to use him as a picturesque example.
The regime in internal exile
What we’re going to do is turn the Trump entourage into a regime in internal exile.
While in exile, this regime will be a larva—a harmless caterpillar. Once duly elected, in office it will not just caper in front of the cameras (in fact, it will not talk at all to the legacy press)—it will spread its wings, and become a beautiful governing butterfly.
Trump himself will not be the brain of this butterfly. He will not be the CEO. He will be the chairman of the board—he will select the CEO (an experienced executive). This process, which obviously has to be televised, will be complete by his inauguration—at which the transition to the next regime will start immediately.
For Trump, being President will be exactly like it was—all the photo-ops and more—without any papers to sign, “decisions” to “make,” etc. The CEO he picks will run the executive branch without any interference from the Congress or courts, probably also taking over state and local governments. Most existing important institutions, public and private, will be shut down and replaced with new and efficient systems. Trump will be monitoring this CEO’s performance, again on TV, and can fire him if need be.
But rebooting America is the easy part. The hard part is the path from egg to larva to imago. We can dream about the butterfly as much as we like, but it lives most of its life as an ugly brown grub. Let us now design this insect.
Overview
The strategy of the regime in internal exile is to legally construct an alternate regime. In a country that abstractly recognizes the principle of popular sovereignty, the people have the right to replace the current regime with this alternate regime, and can choose to do so in one step, at one time. The caterpillar can live as long as it likes; it will only become a butterfly once.
Three principles must characterize the alternate regime: unity, excellence, and energy. These character traits will be seen in both the larva and the adult.
The alternate regime must not be sectarian. In and out of power, it must appeal to all populations in the country. In a divided country, its policy is first and foremost one of national unity, and its first deliverable is peace in all civil wars—race wars, class wars, gender wars and culture wars—hot civil wars and cold civil wars—all over, forever.
This is the most important thing you are voting for when you vote for the butterfly revolution: peace. No one steps on anyone’s toes and no one kicks anyone.
In power, the new regime gives every population the right to live its own way of life by its own rules, inasmuch as this does not impose externalities on other populations, and also to transmit its folkways to the next generation without hindrance or penalty. Out of power, the new regime recruits every population into its institutions.
The superiority of the alternate regime must be clear in every field in which its hand appears. Like the CPUSA in the 1930s, the alternate regime, as an unimportant grub, must work toward a presence in every important or prestigious field of endeavor. The networks and institutions it builds in this field must be suited to regulate it. They must feel the right, only because of their own excellence, to rule.
As a butterfly, the new regime’s authority in every field will be inescapable. Since no field today is independent of power, old power can only be displaced by new power. If this new power has the local excellence to be a credible authority in the field, the field will transition to this new authority smoothly. If there is no superiority, fragments of the old regime, sustained by their own superiority, will remain and fester.
The energy of the alternate regime must be unlimited. In power, it must be ready to reorganize all of public life—to change America as much as Atatürk changed Turkey.
Out of power, it must be ready to capture as many offices as possible, and coordinate these offices as closely as possible. It seeks not only the maximum number of voters, but also the maximum engagement of these voters, and the maximum control over the maximum number of public offices.
Its central power over these offices is complete. They belong not to their nominal occupants, but to the party that put them there. Any deviation from party discipline will unelect them at the next election.
Maximizing these indicators will eventually allow it to take power with the maximum possible legitimacy. Every new regime is in the best shape if it begins by winning the power tournament of the old regime—if possible, at the deepest, most holy level. Then by definition the old regime then cannot compete with it on either playing field: the old one, or the new one.
On taking power
Any seizure of power must appeal to old and deep fundamental laws and principles, cutting through the Gordian knot of younger parchments—like Humphrey’s Executor, in which an anti-New Deal court was trying to snipe at FDR. It is possible to take a perverse interest in the political roots of this kind of case law. But it doesn’t matter.
The true law of the land is that the President is the chief executive of the executive branch. This has a plain English meaning which has not changed in 250 years. Trump knows what it means to be a CEO. So do his voters and his staff. In office, they will behave as if the Constitution meant what it clearly says. Too bad about the haters!
Congress may pass any bill it likes. The courts may have any opinion they like. It is the job of the executive branch, as a coequal branch of government, to respect these bills and opinions. But respecting the legislative and judicial branches is not the executive’s only job; nor does the Constitution say it is. If the voters feel that the President they elected has done a poor job, let them vote him out. He is accountable to them, and no one else. We call this “representative democracy.”
If the institutions deny the President the Constitutional position he has legally won in the election, the voters will have to act directly. Trump will call his people into the streets—not at the end of his term, when he is most powerless; at the start, when he is most powerful. No one wants to see this nuclear option happen. Preparing for it and demonstrating the capacity to execute it will prevent it from having to happen.
The task of the regime in exile is to give the voters the ability to send the message that they want a regime change, and have that message take effect. Anyone who does not believe the American voter has the right to elect a regime change does not believe in democracy.
Anatomy of the larva
Here is a tentative outline of the process and organization of a larval new regime. The anatomy of this caterpillar has three aspects: voters, politicians, and staffers.
Enlisting an army of voters
There is a contradiction between the reality and the theory of American democracy that causes many democratic initiatives to be inadequately powerful.
In theory, the American voter is an amateur statesman, as interested in the works and products as a government as a model-train nerd in model trains. In practice he votes based on lawn signs, name recognition, net promoter score, advertising time, etc. Even the amounts of money that wealthy Americans spend on political donations are laughably small—considering the magnitude of the consequences.
In theory, American voters have high engagement in politics. In practice, they have low engagement—by any historical standard.
Most schools of political communication therefore have an involuntary emphasis on enhancing the engagement level of the voter—of hyping him up. In the long run, this diet of hype just burns your voter out. He craves fiber! But even more than that, he craves nothing at all. The American voter is tired.
Actually the first goal of any political amplifier—a design to get the most impact out of the least voters—is to get the most impact out of the least engagement. We would like to maximize this gain across the spectrum of voter energy.
Level zero: nothing
Are you a Trump supporter? Great! Please sign up. Here is how you sign up: you put the Trump app on your phone. Here is what that app does, by default: nothing.
If you are not willing to install an app that does nothing (by default), you are not a Trump supporter—and Trump (who hates to lie or even exaggerate) would certainly not want to count you as his supporter.
When you sign up, you do tell the Trump app who and where you are. You even take a picture of your driver’s license. Here is how the Trump Organization holds this data: in some kind of icy bunker deep in the Swiss Alps. (Insert expensive security report.) You also get the right to an NFT—in case it ends up mattering in a positive way.
You also select a level of engagement. The default level is zero. You are not engaged at all—except in an emergency. When Trump has to send out an emergency message, his Bat signal as it were—the future of America had better be on the line.
Ideally, this will never happen. We are certainly not talking fundraising appeals here. The point of level 0 is simply to stand up and be counted. Simply knowing how many unique supporters—people he can count on in an emergency—is of enormous benefit to Trump.
That said, you may very occasionally be asked if you want to upgrade to…
Level one: bloc voting
Level one is the level of mechanical voting.
This is the same as level zero, with one exception: you are notified about upcoming elections. Moreover, you tell the app whether you did or did not vote—making it easier to predict future mechanical votes.
The app comes with a sample ballot for every election in the United States. For any federal, state, local or tribal election you are eligible to vote in, Trump tells you how he thinks you should vote. Of course, this is purely voluntary—when you vote, you can vote however you want. But ideally you just copy from your screen.
You can defect. You can vote however. But you should know that when you do defect from the standard ballot, whatever good you think you are doing by supporting the better candidate, initiative, etc—let’s assume you are right—you are doing far more harm by rendering Trump’s support base weak and unpredictable.
Now he cannot know whether he can or count on you—why not just delete the app? Trump will delete your data and his numbers will become accurate again. Without these lukewarm followers he is stronger. PS: Jesus said the same thing.
All political scientists know that bloc voting is much stronger than issue voting, and strive assiduously to avoid informing the voters that they become much more powerful given much more mechanical discipline.
Ideally, in fact, voters could proxy their voting power to Trump (or the New York Times, or some other leader or institution)—and not have to do anything democratic at all, unless they wanted to change their minds. Some computer would just vote for them. This would give voters the power of level one, with the engagement of level zero.
Level two
Level two is the level of virtual community.
At level two, you also receive broadcast and social news. Trump also controls your information sphere. He lets you know what you need to know is going on (possibly including local news), and runs a social network moderated according to his rules.
Moderation only works when it is enforcing a social convention. Designing a system of moderation is a mechanical problem once that convention is well-specified.
Fortunately, there is a good way to ban ideas: ban the jargon in which these ideas are normally expressed. Any idea can be expressed, so long as it can be expressed without its customary language. This is often quite hard for ideas which are genuinely bad—and they do not usually have the practice.
There are two linguistic subsets that fit this description. Set A is the jargon of the regime. Set B is the jargon of offensive speech. (The regime decides whatever is currently considered offensive.)
The correct content policy is to be no more tolerant of jargon B than any other space in the regime—to enforce “political correctness.” If you have an idea that is naturally expressed in jargon B, you have to express it unnaturally without the aid of jargon B. People of good will may disagree with this idea, but it will not trigger them so.
Yet at the same time, the moderators must be no more tolerant of jargon A than jargon B. Any linguistic appeal to regime authority is taboo. Synonyms for these taboos are prized—always consider, for instance, the humble English word “variety.”
The result of this policy is a “larval space” that will not be targeted by the regime, or at least triggers it as little as possible—but also is free of the regime’s influence.
All these taboos will be relaxed once the butterfly has spread its wings. Jargon A will be nothing more than a joke—as will jargon B, like a sort of post-Soviet kitsch. But safety is a larva’s first priority.
As for the broadcast news on the Trump app, this is always an in-house production (no syndication—except in sports) and the most rigorous editorial standards are applied. (There are no ads—all political operations must be funded by donation.)
You have a little dial which lets you get the news at any depth and specificity you want. You can get (unmediated) local news, too. You set these dials and once in a while let your phone tell you what’s going on—and that’s your level of engagement (besides the election notifications.
At level two, you also become able to donate to Trump (or pro-Trump PACs). This is done through the site and, of course, earns karma in the social network. However, in this level there is no in-person connection, physical action, or (except as required by law) personal identification.
Finally, at level two, you differentiate your cultural background. At the very least, you select red-state or blue-state content. The two must never mix, virtually or physically.
It is completely normal and fine for Americans of all ethnocultural backgrounds to support Trump. No group should feel the movement is owned by any other group. No group should feel it has to defend itself from any other group. The new regime will govern America in the interests of all, without any overt group conflict.
Level three
Level three is the level of physical community.
You are ready to show up at demonstrations, etc. You share your location with the app. Your secure profile includes any military training and equipment—for emergencies only, of course! You may even find yourself linked to a local or neighborhood cell. But your time and energy will not be seriously encroached upon.
There is nothing at all illegal, or even sinister, about any of this. It is just normal American stuff. Didn’t Tocqueville talk about our penchant for forming organizations?
However, to join level three, you have to apply—and you will be vigorously vetted. Your identity will receive a full proctological scan.
To make sure the capacity of level three is known, both inside and outside the system, it is frequently tested. A notification, without much warning, will tell you to go to such and such a place, and do such and such thing. Of course, your phone will know if you comply—and if you don’t, it will at least ask you for an excuse.
If you are requested to appear in public, please wear a Trump hat, big 70s sunglasses and a covid mask. The combination breaks most attempts at facial recognition, but does not make you look like a total criminal or weirdo. You care a lot about viruses, and get migraines.
Anyone from level three who shows their face in public is dangerous. It does not matter why they are doing it—they need to be expelled. (It is okay to show your body, though—so long as it is a body to be proud of. In particular, it is always good to have attractive underdressed people as the front line of a demonstration—it demoralizes the riot police, and also the bodybuilders can actually fight back. And finally—filmic.
This system of automated democratic action can be tested on a small scale, making little impact, but yielding statistical results that reliably predict an enormous response on a large scale—giving it the maximum power of democratic surprise. It is this kind of surge from out of nowhere that creates the pure delight that can topple a regime.
None of this is illegal, of course—but it will certainly create some lawsuits. Trump has his army of top-notch lawyers as well, of course.
Level four
Level four is the level of professional selection.
At level four, you are ready to participate in staffing the next regime. Your services are not normally called on by Trump, until he is in power or at least office. However, you stay in touch and he is always ready to deploy you.
Your identity will absolutely not be disclosed until your services are needed, so there is no risk in applying. But again, Trump has to know his resources before he can act.
You can qualify for Trump’s regime-in-exile in one of five core ways. The staff pool will be an even mixture of people from these sources—carefully filtered, by a filter that includes a literal IQ test.
First, you have real experience on the Hill or in the career civil service or Pentagon. You should not expect anything to be done the old way—but you know the old way.
Second, you have credentials as a scholar or a journalist—but have burned them and can never use them again. You can still think in both worlds, and you should. But you can never again work in the old world—and shouldn’t use its official language.
Third, you are crazy and charismatic enough to want to be in front of the camera, as a politician. This is a casting call—like the way Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was selected by the Justice Democrats. Like her, you should have no previous experience in politics. Of course, you will be extremely super-vetted.
Fourth, you have a stellar track record of getting things done in the corporate world—ideally as a startup founder.
Fifth, you are just really smart and can first pass an aptitude test, then do well in a public content contest. You are some kind of genius idea guru but who is also verbose. An organization cannot survive an infestation of these people but needs at least one.
Praxis of the larval regime
Again, this staff pool is not hired by default. It is registered by default. It can be used for three purposes: legislative staff, executive appointments, and political candidates. The secrecy of the pool is once again paramount.
Political candidates under this system are not endorsed. Trump does not endorse a candidate. Trump creates a candidate. He reaches into his casting directory for an amateur who is (a) eligible, (b) filtered, tested and screen-tested, and (c) has no prior political experience.
If this candidate is elected, their identity will not matter. They will be assigned a staff from the staff pool. Their connection with the operations of this staff will be nominal; all the staff really work for Trump, not for the politician.
Trump has no reason not to endorse a candidate in every primary—perhaps even, once a sufficient blue-state installed base is established, the Democratic primaries. The Trump voter will not even care who these candidates are.
He will simply look at his Trump notification, go to the polling place, fill out his ballot the way his phone tells him to, and go on with his beautiful day. That’s how mechanical voting works—the user experience is actually, in a way, more pleasant.
The political power of these mechanical voters is awesome—especially in primaries, which are often poorly attended. It would be unsurprising if a disciplined Trump voting machine could not win the majority of Republican primaries in 2024.
Moreover, once in office, Trump politicians will not operate as individuals. They will retain their organizational discipline—or they will not be on the ballot next time.
Legislators in the same legislature will operate as a unified bloc under central orders. They will share a unified staff. They will be individual actors in no way. In fact, they should not even be involved in legislation, except for fundraising and photo-ops. Isn’t this is how it is anyway? Voters will vote as in the UK—for the bloc, not the person.
The war against the deep state
The rest of this magnificent army will only be used once Trump takes office. Then, he will throw it directly against the administrative state—not bothering with confirmed appointments, just using temporary appointments as need.
The job of this landing force is not to govern. It is to understand the government. It is to figure out what the Trump administration can actually do—when it assumes the full Constitutional powers given to the chief executive of the executive branch.
What is there, in this executive branch? What does it do? One thing is certain—the Trump regime will not be thinking about what parts of the executive branch must be systematically dismantled. It will be thinking about what parts can be safely preserved. This “zero-based budgeting” is not common in Washington.
In order to do this thinking, in order to figure it out what he is at least starting with, Trump will need these ninjas to parachute into this branch he is supposed to control—like Duke Leto landing on Arrakis. He should not have any positive expectations at all—but he will see what his people find. (FDR’s Bureau of the Budget, now OMB, used a similar “commissar” or “cadre” design.)
Before it can go into battle, this army will need to be trained. Mainly, they will need to be ideologically trained—in special reading and discussion clubs. The old regime can huff and puff, but it will have a hard time cracking down on subversive book camps.
Finally, it is not sufficient to have an army of parachute ninjas large or smart to drop into all the agencies in the executive branch. Many institutions of power are outside the government proper. Ninjas will have to land on the roofs of these buildings too—mainly journalism, academia and social media.
The new regime must seize all points of power, without respect for paper protections. Anything can be nationalized—so long as the new regime has the staff, the prize crew as it were, to nationalize it.
The regime must have the capacity to govern every institution it does not dismantle. The Trump regime is not a barbaric sack of America’s institutions. Genghis Khan is not in the building! It is a systematic renewal of America’s institutions. No brand or building can survive. But the new regime must perform the real functions of the old, and ideally perform them much better.
Many institutions which are necessary organs of society will have to be destroyed. These organs will have to be replaced. If they have not already been replaced in the larval stage, or even if they have, to scale—these replacements will need staff. Etc.
Life of the caterpillar regime
In the larval stage, the organization focuses on growing while maintaining quality. Until tens of millions of supporters have installed the app, it doesn’t have much to do—and shouldn’t do anything which could succeed. Not, at least in the real world.
But as soon as it can, it should start testing Trump-filtered candidates. As soon as it can, it should get a regime candidate in every major election. Why not scale it? Even a voting bloc much smaller than a majority can be useful in various ways. And the effort always creates experience. And since the machine is national in scope, and the voter is voting on a national basis, local funding and advertising may not even be needed…
This mix of growth, deepening and testing of engagement, electoral power testing, and expansion in subject depth, human capital, and human quality, can go on forever. It can even survive Trump himself—like a Roman emperor, he can adopt a successor. The longer a regime in exile lives, the bigger and stronger it should become.
Birth of the butterfly regime
Trump should not take any power until he can accept all the power. Once elected President, he should present the legislative, judicial and administrative states with a choice: either they acknowledge his manifest democratic mandate to Constitutional executive authority and allow him to serve as a Constitutional chief executive; or, he leaves the White House, and calls his people into the street. He will return only on their backs—to serve as a revolutionary chief executive. Does anyone want this?
The greater the credibility of this threat—and he may call demonstrations just to demonstrate it—the greater the probability that it will never have to happen. But Trump, on the day of his inauguration, must both declare a state of emergency, and display his full democratic power. It will be viscerally clear to everyone in the country that this is something different—the old regime is at an end and can never return. Call it a revolution if you like! Every revolution starts by convincing itself.
Naturally, if there is a bloc of Trump ninjas in the legislature, it is much easier to make the revolution as legal as possible. FDR’s tame rubberstamp Congress was a huge thing. Ideally, the regime’s legality is unquestionable. But what really matters is that this democratic revolution either happens, or does not happen—no in-betweens.
There is another possibility: Trump loses the Presidency, but the Trump machine wins a substantial bloc—even a majority—in the legislature.
This is no problem at all. Every regime on the American pattern can be governed by the prime-ministerial system—through its legislature. Since the executive branch is in fact the legislative branch, it can be taken over by capturing the legislature—creating an American equivalent of the British prime-ministerial system.
And often, the power of even a minority bloc is such that it can dictate the behavior of the rest of the party. Issues are not the concern of the bloc—power is. The goal of its winning legislative candidates is to capture authority—over first committees, then rules, then all of legislation. There is a possibility that this will be easier than it looks.
Once Trump controls the legislature from outside, at least according to today’s bizarre precedents, he is more lawfully in possession of executive power than if he is elected President—fact. Constitutional law is pretty cool.
Delegation
Finally, once proper legal authorization exists, Trump takes over the executive branch and appoints a CEO. As we said at the beginning, he is not this CEO.
FDR was a lot like Trump in some ways. He was intensely charismatic, insanely witty, and had the attention span of a fly. But there was one difference—FDR was a scion of one of America’s great families.
As a born aristocrat, FDR was confident. That meant he could delegate. That meant that although he was anything but a manager, he could find competent people to manage for him, whom he wouldn’t micromanage.
A Trump who was confident enough to act as America’s chairman of the board, not America’s CEO—who could pick an amazing CEO, ready, willing and able to take unlimited executive authority over all federal, state and local agencies, corporations and institutions—could truly make America great again.
Or so I believe. But fortunately or not, this Trump just doesn’t exist. So it will have to stay an academic exercise…